Twenty-Thirty: Health Care Scenarios – exploring potential changes in health care in England over the next 20 years

A broad range of significant developments are anticipated in the provision of health care over the next 20 years, for example, advances in digital and communications technology, and in genetic research. Yet the NHS will need to seek greater efficiencies in coming years, if only to keep pace with increasing demand. While predicting the future of health care with any degree of certainty is fraught, it is possible to use scenario planning methods to develop possible and plausible futures.

We worked with the Department for Health and Social Care to identify key strategic influences on the demand for and supply of health and social care over the next 20 year.

The project developed four high-level scenarios for the future in order to inform modelling of future supply and demand. These scenarios were developed in consultation with relevant stakeholders (e.g., clinicians, policymakers, patient groups).

The four scenarios were: 

1. The Gadget Show – high technology adoption with high public engagement 
2. Plural Provision – low technology adoption with high public engagement 
3. Stability with Integration – low technology adoption with low public engagement 
4. Modern Traditional – high technology adoption with low public engagement 

The report discusses the opportunities and risks presented by each of the scenarios.